For precise electricity grid planning
Expansion forecast, yield and load simulation
What energy do we want to use, when and where? This is a complex question that energy suppliers, municipal utilities, distribution network operators and their partners in particular are asking themselves to meet the immense challenges of the future. Municipalities also have a duty to get a clear picture of this with the topic of “heat planning”.
We offer competent help for the answer.
Precise power grid planning
Data analysis and visualization for future investments
Our tools and data are used to calculate and visualize possible electricity grid planning. The data on loads, such as household consumption, e-mobility and electrically generated heat from heat pumps, as well as yields, such as from photovoltaic systems, are generated and mapped. In addition to the yield and load simulation, we provide an outlook on possible expansion. We show, for example, how acceptance for the installation of heat pumps is developing in the respective district or street section. The result is a reliable forecast based on “load minus yield”, which provides precise data to support the crucial discussion about investments in the future.
Functionality & scope
How the expansion forecast works
The expansion forecast examines how many charging stations, heat pumps or PV systems can be expected in an area, i.e. how many may be purchased in the period under review. Current technical trends, such as the expansion of charging stations and heat pumps, are taken into account.
Charging stations
- Performance of the fast charging stations
- Number of e-cars per house connection (degree of motorization)
- Distribution by affinity
- Locations at shopping centers, gas stations, etc.
- If necessary, prioritization of (partially) public e-charging stations in areas with fewer opportunities for private e-charging stations (e.g. in inner city areas)
- Locations at shopping centers, gas stations, etc.
Heat pumps
- Building data (building cubature/simplified volume, living space, year of construction, renovation status)
- Distribution by affinity
- Based on this data, the heating demand and the required heat pump output of each building can be forecast individually
Solar potential
- The solar potential, including irradiation analysis, can be calculated for almost all buildings in Germany. Depending on the scenario, different assumptions are made regarding system size and system outputDistribution by affinity
- Depending on the scenario, different calculation parameters can be defined (current and advancing module technology, power losses, type of mounting for flat roof systems) as well as the size of the PV system (maximum or based on the building’s electricity requirements)
Socio-economic data is used for the expansion forecasts, which should provide an insight into the probability of purchasing electric cars, heat pumps and solar systems. This should provide insights into the possible distribution of the new decentralized loads and yields.
The probabilities must then be converted into actual expansion figures. For this purpose, expansion scenarios for the development of electromobility, heat pumps and solar roof systems are defined for scaling in agreement with the client. Such future scenarios can be developed up to 2050, for example on the basis of national expansion targets.
The scaling and corresponding evaluation can be carried out annually or at 5-year intervals. Interpolation between base years is performed in order to supplement information in the forecasts for missing years.
Load forecast
- Based on a previously carried out expansion forecast or other data, the future electricity demand per building is simulated to the hour
- This data can be aggregated by area depending on requirements
- Either data transmitted to us or standard load profiles are used for household / commercial requirements
Earnings forecast
- Based on our solar potential data (and possibly an expansion forecast), a yield forecast (electricity yield of PV systems) can also be carried out
- Based on the roof information (size, inclination, orientation, irradiation), it is possible to precisely determine maximum system sizes. Furthermore, the peak generation (at which hour is the most generated) can be determined to the hour if required
- The calculation bases for this can be set individually (e.g. system loss, module type, type of flat roof mounting, etc.).
Talk to us!
If we can help you with our data expertise to answer the complex questions, please do not hesitate to contact us. Make an appointment so that we can better understand your tasks.
You are welcome to send us an e-mail for a detailed description of the analysis procedure. We will be happy to send you a download link.
Key Account Manager
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